Cash Flow After-Tax Effects On The Sale Of The Land Future House Prices

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Future House Prices

As for new construction, the Home Builders Association reported that there was no real increase in home sales at the start of the all-important autumn period. For the 4 weeks to mid-October 2010, bookings were down year-on-year, reflecting fewer outlets and limited mortgage loan availability. The October indices for the entire market were as follows:

Land Registry: -0.2%

Nationwide: -0.7% (3 month numbers -1.5%)

Halifax: +1.8% (3-month data -1.2%)

Home route: -0.9%

The data is misleading with indices measuring different geographies and different cash/mortgage transactions. Even the chairman of Persimmon asked for more accurate data and that mortgage lenders should work together to produce just one 3-month index that would moderate volatility and be a better measure of underlying trends.

The average house price is now somewhere between £156,000 and £167,000, depending on which index you use. As for the South East, this is higher at £212,000 (Oct down 0.3%: Land Registry) and in London £340,000 (Oct down 0.6%: Land Registry).

In the future, the hope for a housing revival has certainly been dashed. Confidence is being weighed down by poor job security, tax rises, cuts in benefits and mortgage approvals, which are still less than half their pre-crisis levels. As a result, the number of new customers is declining. However, the number of homes coming on the market is increasing, mainly due to 3D (debt, death and divorce) as most other sellers are holding back. As a result, prices will continue to fall (and not fall) down. This will increase fears that those with large mortgages taken out before the recession will find themselves in a negative equity situation.

Needless to say, different areas will feel the impact to a lesser or greater extent. Central London remains the most sheltered in terms of house prices, which are still higher than in October 2009. This is due to active cash buyers, less reliance on conventional mortgages and more capital. Foreign demand also remains strong (taking up more than half of the central London market), although they now rely more on buyers from Asia, Russia and the Middle East, as opposed to traditional Europeans, who are also feeling the pinch. Despite the fact that the financial bonus situation is not as well exploited, the outlook remains more optimistic than for the rest of the country, but further slippages are likely to be short-term. After the usual time lag, the outlook for London will, as always, extend to the rest of the South East.

Those in the north will be more susceptible to changes in interest rates, mortgage availability and employment opportunities. The government’s spending cuts are likely to hit the north the hardest, as statistically more people are employed in public sector roles in that area of ​​the country.

Overall, it remains a buyer’s market for first-time buyers who are still struggling to raise sufficient deposits. If your home is currently on the market, you need to be very realistic if you want to get a sale, with many agents feeling that asking prices are still 5-10% too high, although good properties in desirable locations will, as always, be snapped up. up.

The situation is unlikely to change before Christmas and while it is possible that the Bank of England may act in the short term to support the market by cutting mortgage rates, improving wholesale funding costs for banks and raising inflation expectations, it would be unwise to hold your breath. In the new year, interest rates should begin to slowly rise again, and many lenders are already taking this into account in their loan decisions.

In short, the credit crunch will continue to affect the housing market for several years. No real growth is expected until 2012-13, starting in London and the South East, with the North the last to see a consistent positive improvement.

Recently in the news…

· Galliford Try/Linden Homes named Builder of the Year by Housebuilder magazine.

· The head of the Council of Mortgage Lenders has opposed the proposed FSA regulation, saying many mortgages could be restricted to prevent just a few defaults.

· Housing Minister Grant Shapps has promised to cut red tape and make it easier to build homes.

· More than £900 million has been earmarked to encourage local authorities to build – for each new home, authorities will receive a bonus equal to at least the annual council tax.

· Housebuilders Bellway, Bovis, Redrow and Galliford Try have recently reported improved results, although the words “encouraged”, “cautious” and “frustrated” might more aptly sum up their status.

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